Projecting smoking cessation in the north of England using Delphi methods

Authors:
Rob Gandy and Rino Casmira Coladangelo

Presenter:
Rob Gandy
Independent NHS Healthcare Consultant, Wirral, UK

Abstract
Smoking prevalence projections generally show gradual reductions in the number of smokers in relation to the total population, yet
they do not reflect the degree of churn in the cohort of smokers. An understanding of such churn is essential to plan related services, as different churn scenarios can have different implications. There is little or no data published on this topic, and therefore Delphi methods were applied to develop related forecasts, utilising expert opinion in the form of over 300 GPs from the North of England, a traditionally high prevalence region.

They projected a modest 2.2% reduction in smoking prevalence over 10 years, undoubtedly anticipating the impact of unemployment and illegal tobacco sales, particularly for young people. However, this was the balance of a reduction of nearly 30% in the existing cohort of smokers, with new / returning smokers equivalent to 21% of the cohort. There were variations between different age groups.

The results point to 1 in 6 smokers needing to set a quit date each and every year to achieve even a 2.2% reduction, compared to the current figure of 1 in 16. Despite ‘early wins’ in reducing smoking prevalence, to effect continuing reductions will present considerable challenges.

Source of funding: The research was sponsored by Liverpool Primary Care Trust, which paid for the fees for GPs that responded to the survey. No fees were charged by either of the authors, who undertook the research in their own time.

Declaration of interest: none

About the presenter
Rob Gandy is a professional statistician who has worked in the NHS and as an independent healthcare consultant for over 36 years. This includes 13 years in Director level posts with six NHS organisations. He has been involved with the Liverpool Business School of Liverpool John Moores University since 1997. He has a particular interest in analytical approaches to planning and performance in health care services, and likes to explore how successful methods from other fields might be applied. He has a PhD in Business Information and has had over 50 papers published in journals or presented at conferences.